11 Apr 2011: Probability (I)
We always know when people buying a lottery, the probability to win it is very small, typically it will be less than 1/1 millionth. However, we always see or hear that people queue to buy a lottery that promises winning a few million bucks. I guess it’s because of the excitement feeling that they only spend a little money to get a large sum of money. It is also a big hope to strike a lottery so that they can spend it for whatever they want. If they lose, they kept saying that, it’s only a small amount of money as compare to the expected gain. Their dreams to win a lottery never fade.
12 Apr 2011: Probability (II)
Now let’s take a look on different probability scenario. Suppose you take a train, and at particular station they train stops for a while due to some incident in front. You do not know how long does it takes to resume the operation. You have a choice whether to stay on the train or to get out of the train to take other mode of transport. In this case, would you think you will take the chances as if you are buying a lottery? Stay on the train since the minimal disruption could be solved within 10 minutes, while taking a bus could take 30 minutes. If this is your first experiences, I guess the chances is 50/50. However, if you have been experiences for a few times, I believe it would create some sorts of excitement or rather annoyance. Because it could be a minor stop or a long one. The most interesting part, you cannot predict the probability as in comparison when you buy a lottery.
13 Apr 2011; Probability (III)
There is another interesting view of probability. Suppose you have been detected with a cancer with stadium 4 and the doctor told you that you only have a few more months to live. In this case, the probability to survive is very low. You face the reality and decide to enjoy your life as much as you can before you leave this world. For example, going for a holiday, spending good time with your loved ones and friends, splurging on items that you normally don’t buy. After a few months having a good life, a miracle happens, the doctor tell you that your cancer had actually disappear. Would you consider your decision to enjoy your life as if buying a lottery since the probability calculated is very low ?
14 Apr 2011: Probability (IV)
These days, you aren’t interested to hear that if you buy product A, you will be eligible to enter the lucky draw that can win a car. You know that the probability is very low since there are many people will join the lucky draw. How about buying a product with a sure-win lucky draw. irregardless what you buy, you will win something in the lucky draw. You will feel that you will never lose. The only difference is whether you win car or just a pencil. It depends on your luck. Of course for marketing reason, the chances to get a car is 1/1 millionth and the chances to get a pen is the remaining.
15 Apr 2011: Probability (V)
Take a last look on probability for this week. Supposed you take part in a game where the chances of winning is 80%. Knowing that you chances to win is very high, then you start taking it easy rather than playing hard on the game. As a result you lose the game. Would you blame it because of the 20% chance of losing the game or because you are not serious when playing the game? I would say, when you start being complacent, your probability of winning has change from 80/20 to maybe 40/60. You may argue, even you play seriously, there is still 20% chances of losing it. After all, probability is uncertain, it could never be 100% correct !
